Monthly Archives: November 2013

How to manage the sale of cannabis

Per the article:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2013/11/18/131118fa_fact_keefe?currentPage=all

They hired an “expert” in cannabis legalization. What?

Bah, nonsense.

Here’s how you introduce cannabis commercialization:
• Get pharmacies to distribute marijuana. Marijuana is a DRUG and should be managed like one.
• Price marijuana at half or less of the street value.
• One must be at least 21 years of age to purchase.
• Limit the single purchase amounts. 1 oz. per sale max.
• Allow personal cultivation up to a maximum dry storage of 8 oz. and a live plant count of 5 plants.
• Licensed growers only will be allowed production quantity cultivation.

The approach must effectively be a blending of the laws regarding the sale of cigarettes, prescription drugs, and alcohol:

One must be 21 to buy cigarettes and alcohol.
One must request cigarettes from behind the counter.
One must buy prescription drugs through a pharmacist at a pharmacy.
One is barred from producing sale-able quantities of tobacco or alcohol (moonshiners).
One will incur fines, penalties and jail time if you circumvent any of the laws regarding the production, purchasing or sale of cigarettes, drugs or alcohol.

Marijuana should be managed as if it’s a combination of all three.

As to pricing of marijuana – it’s obvious. One must severely undercut every illicit dealer in one swoop so as to eliminate, over night, the illegal cannabis network, from Mexican/Canadian grower, cartel, dealer, peddler — to customer. How do you destroy a competitor? Price the product so that competition is financially impossible.

Take all of the above and apply it to marijuana
– simple, transparent and strict.

Additionally, why not contract with cigarette manufacturers, have them bid for the job, to produce cannabis cigarettes. Have them dye the paper a green color (from hemp dye) and sell them by the pack. Why should cannabis be only sold in baggies? Why not fully productize the drug just like tobacco? (Vaping now is the preferred way of consumption so canna-rettes would be frowned upon.)

When small time commercial growers exceed their limits, the surplus will be added to the “general storage fund” of marijuana supply. All confiscated marijuana will be added to the general production supply.

 

 


Probability of … (fill in the blank)

What are the probabilities of any eventuality, event or condition? The easy answer is – who knows? The harder answer is chock full of statistics, data, collection, analysis and compilation. And while we can give gut responses to any such questions, our guts are biased, sometimes severely. But in lieu of actually doing any extended work.. we can guess.

So what are the probabilities of the following – guessed?

• FED tapering?
• Banks increasing lending?
• Interest rates rising?
• Inflation increasing?
• Planet warming?
• Extreme weather increasing?
• Energy dwindling?
• Global calamity striking?

Now, what’s missing from these propositions is a critical aspect to forecasting – time. Sure calamity will strike the globe – some time. But this forecast is useless. We need to frame the estimates by time. Reviewing each of the above again but putting a six month time frame around them how might the probabilities change? It is these numbers that we might be able to use to assist us in our future planing. The time horizon of the prediction of life affecting events is critical to planning. So, 6 months from now?

• FED tapering? 20%…
• Banks increasing lending? 40%…
• Interest rates rising? 30%…
• Inflation increasing? 50%…
• Planet warming? 60%…
• Extreme weather increasing? 55%…
• Energy dwindling? 5%…
• Global calamity striking? 1%…

If we use such numbers, they’re just guess you realize, can we then predict the outcome of things like the price of the DOW, gold, treasuries, mortgage rates, rice, used cars, milk, etc.?

Is it better to just throw a dart at a guess or is it better to try and create a generally rational framing system to help understand the probabilities of life changing events?